Introduction

This analysis explores the relationships of agricultural commodity loss, at a county level, from 2001-2015, across the three state region of the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Idaho, and Oregon), and then focusing in on the Inland Pacific Northwest (INPW - 26 county region that encapsulates the Palouse, in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon). Here we explore the entire range of commodities and damage causes, identifying the top revenue loss commodities and their most pertinent damage causes - as indicated from the USDA’s agricultural commodity loss insurance archive. We also explore claim freqency, and finally zero in on the top 5 commodities for the region, and examine specific loss and claim frequency by year and damage cause.

We perform several steps to examine the full set of data, and to narrow down factors to a usable form for further modeling analysis.

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transforming data. Here we load commodity loss data, and aggregate by differing factors, so we can examine losses on an annual basis, by county, damage cause, and commodity.

Step 2. Study Area Overview. We narrow down our data to the 26 county palouse region, and display a study area map for perspective.

Step 3. Pacific Northwest Region Overview of Insurance Loss by year, damage cause, and commodity: 2001-2015

Step 4. Pacific Northwest Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by commodity and damage cause: 2001-2015

Step 5. IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by commodity and damage cause: 2001-2015

Step 6. IPNW Study Area Region Interaction Plots of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY, for WHEAT and APPLES: 2001-2015

Step 7. Nationwide Wheat Prices per metric ton: 2001-2015

Step 8. IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss ($) by Year: 1989-2015 We summarize all insurance loss by year for 1989 - 2015 - so we can then subset our analysis to a refined time period (2001-2015).

Step 9. IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 1989-2015 We summarize all commodity insurance loss for the Palouse by commodity - so we can determine the top insurance loss commodities for a filtered examination.

Step 10. IPNW Study Area Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 1989-2015. Similarly to Step 3, we summarize all insurance loss by the cause of the damage for 1989 - 2015, so we can determine which damage causes are resulting the the majority of insurance loss.

Step 11. IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 2001 - 2015. Given our previous steps, we now examine Palouse commodity insurance loss for 2001 - 2015.

Step 12. IPNW Study Area Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 2001-2015. In step 8, we examine Palouse commodities by damage cause for 2001-2015.

Step 13. Top five commodities, 2001-2015 for the IPNW Region Study Area. In step 13, we examine the IPNW top five commodities for 2001-2015 (apples, wheat, cherries, dry peas, and barley).

Step 1. Data Preparation: Loading and Transformation data

The first step is to load Pacific Northwest agricultural insurance commodity loss data, aggregate by county, damage cause and commodity, remove zeros, transform the loss values ($) into cube root and logrithmic outputs, and scale and center the data.


Step 2: Study Area Overview - 26 County Palouse Region

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Step 3: Pacific Northwest Region Overview of Insurance Loss by year, damage cause, and commodity: 2001-2015

PNW total insurance loss by year, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damage cause loss
Drought $719,610,396
Decline in Price $336,993,981
Heat $267,376,106
Frost $170,482,583
Freeze $149,373,220
Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $148,556,853
Hail $127,772,100
Cold Wet Weather $86,741,055
Cold Winter $67,118,523
Failure Irrig Supply $57,087,916
PNW total insurance loss by year, 2001-2015
2001-2015
commodity loss
WHEAT $1,444,149,995
CHERRIES $156,670,513
APPLES $156,063,380
POTATOES $117,459,400
BARLEY $102,125,046
DRY PEAS $58,038,162
PNW total insurance loss by year, 2001-2015
2001-2015
year loss
2001 $66,499,267
2002 $96,367,644
2003 $103,553,264
2004 $52,006,242
2005 $72,871,250
2006 $63,467,130
2007 $83,252,301
2008 $150,480,619
2009 $545,650,029
2010 $83,829,994
2011 $115,965,036
2012 $89,684,692
2013 $171,121,810
2014 $222,526,098
2015 $296,416,750

Step 4: Pacific Northwest Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by commodity and damage cause: 2001-2015

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Step 5: IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY by commodity and damage cause: 2001-2015

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Step 6: IPNW Study Area Region Interaction Plots of Insurance Loss FREQUENCY, for WHEAT and APPLES: 2001-2015

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Step 7: Nationwide Wheat Prices per metric ton: 2001-2015

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Step 8: IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss ($) by Year: 1989-2015

IPNW region total insurance loss by year, 2001-2015
2001-2015
year loss
2001 $51,669,997
2002 $75,193,597
2003 $71,122,910
2004 $27,690,033
2005 $42,829,865
2006 $50,433,271
2007 $47,600,330
2008 $118,284,490
2009 $441,709,248
2010 $52,081,926
2011 $68,218,646
2012 $47,232,701
2013 $118,373,608
2014 $177,267,234
2015 $240,900,597

Step 9: IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 2001-2015

IPNW region total insurance loss by commodity, 2001-2015
2001-2015
commodity loss
WHEAT $1,214,345,016
APPLES $89,191,032
CHERRIES $74,853,794
DRY PEAS $56,809,377
BARLEY $34,102,839
GRAPES $17,370,434
GREEN PEAS $13,520,586
POTATOES $10,232,481
All Other Crops $9,767,559
CANOLA $8,913,093
ADJUSTED GROSS REVENUE-LITE $8,128,725

STEP 10: IPNW Study Area Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 2001-2015

IPNW region total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damage cause loss
Drought $677,383,459
Decline in Price $290,497,980
Heat $197,657,025
Frost $92,483,544
Hail $81,461,121
Freeze $77,583,017
Excessive Moisture $76,603,640
Cold Wet Weather $54,410,357
Cold Winter $33,893,991
Wind/Excess Wind $12,442,392

Step 11: IPNW Study Area Region Overview of Insurance Loss by Commodity: 2001 - 2015

IPNW region total insurance loss by commodity, 2001-2015
2001-2015
commodity loss
WHEAT $1,214,345,016
APPLES $89,191,032
CHERRIES $74,853,794
DRY PEAS $56,809,377
BARLEY $34,102,839
GRAPES $17,370,434
GREEN PEAS $13,520,586
POTATOES $10,232,481
All Other Crops $9,767,559
CANOLA $8,913,093
ADJUSTED GROSS REVENUE-LITE $8,128,725

STEP 12: IPNW Study Area Region Overiew of Insurance Loss by Damage Cause: 2001-2015

IPNW region total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
commodity loss
Drought $677,383,459
Decline in Price $290,497,980
Heat $197,657,025
Frost $92,483,544
Hail $81,461,121
Freeze $77,583,017
Excessive Moisture $76,603,640
Cold Wet Weather $54,410,357
Cold Winter $33,893,991
Wind/Excess Wind $12,442,392


STEP 13: Top five commodities, 2001-2015 for the IPNW Region Study Area


Top Damage Causes for APPLES, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region


IPNW region APPLES total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damagecause loss
Hail $40,971,994
Frost $17,016,586
Freeze $14,538,852
Cold Wet Weather $9,246,848
Wind/Excess Wind $2,934,044
Heat $2,422,480
Other $2,060,230

Top Damage Causes for BARLEY, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region


IPNW region BARLEY total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $19,635,980
Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $4,726,399
Heat $4,553,252
Hail $1,466,219
Frost $1,247,180
Other $1,085,647
Decline in Price $858,459
Cold Wet Weather $529,703
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Top Damage Causes for WHEAT, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

IPNW region WHEAT total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $626,038,990
Decline in Price $243,681,710
Heat $150,761,018
Frost $45,605,476
Excess Moisture/Precip/Rain $33,421,663
Cold Winter $28,004,014
Freeze $27,203,439
Cold Wet Weather $24,511,419
Hail $20,390,532
Other $9,724,032
Plant Disease $2,950,763
Other (Snow-Lightning-Etc.) $2,051,960

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Top Damage Causes for CHERRIES, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

IPNW region CHERRIES total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damagecause loss
Excessive Moisture $20,569,890
Frost $15,459,348
Freeze $14,625,022
Decline in Price $8,447,020
Cold Wet Weather $6,725,206
Heat $2,246,093
Hail $2,034,613
Other (Snow-Lightning-Etc.) $1,876,035
Other $1,467,713
Wind/Excess Wind $1,402,854
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Top Damage Causes for DRY PEAS, 2001-2015 for the Palouse Region

IPNW region DRY PEAS total insurance loss by damage cause, 2001-2015
2001-2015
damagecause loss
Drought $22,635,712
Heat $10,399,165
Excessive Moisture $8,618,433
Hail $5,176,545
Cold Wet Weather $2,971,140
Decline in Price $2,936,766
Other $2,067,635
Wind/Excess Wind $1,079,927
Frost $924,053
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